Mahalarta kasuwa: Abubuwan da ke haifar da rudani suna kawo goyan baya ga farashin aluminium

Kwanan nan, lissafin dalar Amurka ya ci gaba da hawa, amma kasuwar da ba ta da ƙarfe ba ta faɗo da ƙarfi ba, kuma yanayin bambancin iri-iri ya fi bayyana.Ya zuwa karshen ciniki a yammacin ranar 24 ga watan Agusta, yanayin da ake amfani da shi na Aluminum na Shanghai da Nickel na Shanghai a bangaren da ba na karfe ba ya bambanta.Daga cikin su, makomar aluminum ta Shanghai ta ci gaba da karuwa, yana rufe 2.66%, ya kafa tsawon wata daya da rabi;Ci gaban nickel na Shanghai ya raunana gabaɗaya, yana rufe 2.03% a ranar.
Yana da kyau a lura cewa jagorar macro na baya-bayan nan don karafa marasa ƙarfe yana da iyaka.Ko da yake jami'an Fed na baya-bayan nan suna da dabi'a mai ban sha'awa kuma ƙididdigar dalar Amurka ta ci gaba da ƙarfafawa, bai yi tasiri sosai game da yanayin karafa ba, kuma yanayin nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'in nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i nau'i) ya ci gaba da ƙarfafawa, amma ba a yi la'akari da yanayin da ba na ƙarfe ba.Wu Haode, shugaban Changjiang Futures reshen Guangzhou, ya yi imanin cewa, akwai manyan dalilai guda biyu:
Na farko, zagayen da ya gabata na raguwar farashin karafa da ba na ƙarfe ba ya cika tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arzikin duniya a ƙarƙashin zagayowar ƙimar Fed.Tun daga watan Yuli, halin ha'incin ribar hakki na Fed ya sauƙaƙa, kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Amurka ya ɗan juya kaɗan, kuma tsammanin kasuwa don haɓaka ƙimar riba ta tilastawa ya kasance matsakaici.Kodayake index ɗin dalar Amurka har yanzu yana da ƙarfi, tsammanin haɓakar ƙimar riba maiyuwa ba za ta iya tada index ɗin dalar Amurka ta ci gaba da tashi sosai ba.Don haka, tasirin ƙarfafa dalar Amurka na ɗan gajeren lokaci kan karafan da ba na ƙarfe ba ya ragu kaɗan, wato, karafan da ba na ƙarfe ba ana “ƙasasshe” zuwa dalar Amurka a matakai.
Na biyu, karuwar karfin kasuwar karafa da ba ta karfe tun watan Agusta ya samo asali ne daga kasuwannin cikin gida.A gefe guda, tare da goyon bayan manufofin cikin gida, tsammanin kasuwa ya inganta;a daya bangaren kuma, yawan zafin jiki a wurare da dama na ci gaba da haifar da karancin wutar lantarki, lamarin da ke haifar da raguwar samar da wutar lantarki a karshen narkewar, da kuma tura farashin karfe ya sake komawa.Sabili da haka, ana iya ganin cewa faifan ciki ya fi ƙarfin faifai na waje, kuma bambanci tsakanin ƙarfin ciki da na waje na farashin aluminum ya fito fili.
A cewar Hou Yahui, babban manazarci na Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, watan Agusta har yanzu yana cikin wani lokaci na wucin gadi na zagayowar karin kudin ruwa na Fed, kuma tasirin abubuwan macro ya ragu sosai.Farashin ƙarfe na baya-bayan nan wanda ba na ƙarfe ba ya fi nuna mahimmancin nau'ikan da kansu.Misali, jan karfe da zinc tare da ginshiƙai masu ƙarfi suna cikin ci gaba da komawa baya.Yayin da bangaren samar da kayayyaki ke kara kuzari ta hanyar labarai na raguwar samar da kayayyaki lokaci guda a gida da waje, kwanan nan aluminum ya sake karye.Don nau'ikan da ke da tushe mai rauni, irin su nickel, bayan sake dawowa a matakin da ya gabata, matsa lamba a sama zai zama mafi bayyane.
A halin yanzu, kasuwar karfen da ba ta da ƙarfe ta shiga lokacin ƙarfafawa, kuma tasirin abubuwan tushen iri daban-daban ya sake dawowa.Alal misali, masana'antun zinc da aluminum a cikin kasar Sin sun fuskanci matsalolin makamashi a Turai, kuma hadarin raguwar samar da kayayyaki ya karu, yayin da samar da aluminum na cikin gida ya shafi raguwar wutar lantarki.Haɗarin raguwar samarwa ya karu.Bugu da ƙari, ƙananan ƙarfe waɗanda ba na ƙarfe ba suna ci gaba da shafar ƙananan kayan ƙira da ƙarancin wadatar kayan aiki.Lokacin da tattalin arzikin duniya har yanzu yana da yawa sosai, rikice-rikice-ɓangarorin samar da kayayyaki suna da sauƙi don jawo hankalin kasuwa. "Mai sharhi kan makomar tsakiyar wa'adi Yang Lina ya ce.
Duk da haka, Yang Lina ya tunatar da cewa, ya kamata kasuwa ta mai da hankali kan cewa, za a gudanar da taron shekara-shekara na manyan bankunan duniya a Jackson Hole, wanda aka fi sani da "barometer" na wuraren juya manufofin, daga ranar 25 zuwa 27 ga watan Agusta, kuma shugaban Fed Powell zai kasance. a ranar Juma'a 22 ga wata agogon Beijing.nuni don yin magana kan yanayin tattalin arziki.A wannan lokacin, Powell zai yi karin bayani game da ayyukan hauhawar farashin kaya da matakan manufofin kuɗi.Ana sa ran za a jaddada cewa har yanzu tattalin arzikin Amurka da kasuwannin kwadago na da karfi, kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba a amince da shi ba, kuma har yanzu akwai bukatar a tsaurara manufofin hada-hadar kudi domin mayar da martani, kuma za a ci gaba da samun karin kudin ruwa.Daidaita don bayanan tattalin arziki.Bayanan da aka sanar a taron har yanzu zai yi tasiri sosai a kasuwa.Ta ce yanayin kasuwancin kasuwa na yanzu yana musanya tsakanin tsaurara matakan ruwa, hauhawar farashin kaya, da tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki.Idan aka waiwaya baya, za a iya gano cewa har yanzu yadda kasuwar karfen da ba ta da karfe ba ta da kyau fiye da sauran kadarorin da ke cikin irin wannan yanayi.
Duban masu samar da bayanan martaba na aluminium, manazarta sun yi imanin cewa karuwar kwanan nan na rikice-rikice na cikin gida da na waje ya kawo tallafi na ɗan gajeren lokaci.Yang Lina ya ce, a halin yanzu, bangaren samar da aluminium na cikin gida yana fama da karancin wutar lantarki, kuma karfin samar da wutar lantarki na ci gaba da raguwa.A Turai, an sake yanke ƙarfin samar da aluminum saboda matsalolin makamashi.Ta bangaren bukatar kuma, kamfanonin sarrafa wutar lantarki suma suna fama da matsalar karancin wutar lantarki sannan kuma yawan aiki ya ragu.Tare da ci gaba da ƙarshen lokacin amfani da lalacewar yanayin waje, yanayin tsari na masana'antar sarrafa yana da rauni sosai, kuma dawo da amfani da tashar zai ɗauki lokaci da ƙarin matakan ƙarfafawa.Dangane da abubuwan ƙira, abubuwan ƙirƙira na zamantakewa sun tara ƙananan ƙimar ƙimar aluminum mara kyau.
Musamman ma, Hou Yahui ya shaidawa manema labarai cewa baya ga raguwar samar da makamashi sakamakon matsalolin makamashi, ma'aikatan kamfanin Hydro's Sunndal aluminum da ke kasar Norway sun fara yajin aiki a kwanan baya, kuma masana'antar aluminium za ta daina samar da kusan kashi 20% cikin makonni hudu na farko.A halin yanzu, jimillar iya aiki na Sunndal Aluminum Plant shine ton 390,000 / shekara, kuma yajin ya shafi kusan tan 80,000 a shekara.
A cikin gida, a ranar 22 ga watan Agusta, an sake inganta bukatun rage wutar lantarki na lardin Sichuan, kuma duk kamfanonin samar da wutar lantarki a lardin sun daina samar da wutar lantarki.Bisa kididdigar da aka yi, akwai kimanin tan miliyan 1 na almuni mai amfani da lantarki a lardin Sichuan, kuma wasu kamfanoni sun fara rage lodi da barin wutar lantarki ga jama'a tun tsakiyar watan Yuli.Bayan watan Agusta, yanayin samar da wutar lantarki ya zama mai tsanani, kuma an rufe duk ƙarfin samar da aluminum na electrolytic a yankin.Chongqing da ke kudu maso yammacin kasar ita ma tana cikin wani yanayi na rashin wutar lantarki saboda tsananin zafi.An fahimci cewa, masana'antar aluminium ta electrolytic guda biyu sun sami matsala, wanda ke da ikon samar da kusan tan 30,000.Ya ce saboda abubuwan da aka ambata a sama, an sami wasu sauye-sauye a tsarin sabuwar kayan aikin aluminum.A cikin watan Agusta, an dakatar da matsa lamba mai yawa akan bangaren samar da aluminium electrolytic na ɗan lokaci, wanda ya samar da wani tallafi na farashi a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
"Yaya tsawon lokacin da ƙarfin aikin farashin aluminum zai iya ɗorewa ya dogara ne akan tsawon lokacin yajin aikin a masana'antar aluminium na ketare da kuma ko za a ƙara fadada sikelin rage yawan samarwa saboda matsalolin makamashi."Yang Lina ya ce, idan aka ci gaba da samar da kayayyaki dangane da bukatar, tasirin da farashin aluminum zai yi.Mafi girman tasiri akan ma'auni na wadata da buƙata.
Hou Yahui ya ce, bayan kammala hutun bazara, ana sa ran za a kawo karshen yanayin zafi da ake ci gaba da yi a yankin kudu maso yammacin kasar, amma za a dauki wani lokaci kafin a shawo kan matsalar wutar lantarki, da kuma aikin samar da wutar lantarki. aluminum yana ƙayyade cewa sake kunnawa na tantanin halitta zai ɗauki ɗan lokaci.Ya yi hasashen cewa, bayan da aka tabbatar da samar da wutar lantarkin da kamfanonin samar da aluminium na lantarki a lardin Sichuan ke yi, ana sa ran za a sake fara aikin samar da wutar lantarki a kalla wata guda.
Wu Haode ya yi imanin cewa, kasuwar aluminium na bukatar mai da hankali kan abubuwa masu zuwa: A fannin wadata da bukatu, yanke wutar lantarki a Sichuan kai tsaye ya haifar da raguwar karfin samar da tan miliyan 1 da kuma jinkirin tan 70,000 na sabbin karfin samar da wutar lantarki. .Idan tasirin rufewar ya kasance na wata ɗaya, fitowar aluminum na iya zama sama da 7.5%.ton.A bangaren bukatu, a karkashin ingantattun manufofin macro na cikin gida, tallafin bashi da sauran fannoni, ana samun ci gaba kadan a yawan amfani da ake sa ran, kuma tare da zuwan kololuwar lokacin “Golden Nine Azurfa Goma”, za a sami wani karuwar bukatar. .Gabaɗaya, ana iya taƙaita mahimman abubuwan samar da aluminium da buƙatun kamar: ɓangarorin samarwa yana raguwa, ƙimar buƙatu yana ƙaruwa, daidaiton samarwa da buƙatu a cikin shekara yana inganta.
Dangane da kayyadewa, kayan aluminium na LME na yanzu bai wuce tan 300,000 ba, kayan aluminium ɗin da ya gabata bai wuce tan 200,000 ba, rasidin sito bai wuce tan 100,000 ba, kuma na cikin gida electrolytic aluminum inventory inventory bai kai ton 700.000 ba.“Kasuwa ta kasance tana cewa shekarar 2022 ita ce shekarar da aka sanya aluminium electrolytic a cikin samarwa, kuma hakika haka lamarin yake.Duk da haka, idan muka dubi raguwar ƙarfin samar da aluminum a shekara mai zuwa da kuma nan gaba, ƙarfin aiki na aluminum electrolytic yana gabatowa da 'rufin', kuma buƙatar ta kasance barga.Game da ci gaba, ko akwai matsalar ƙira a cikin aluminum, ko kuma ko kasuwa ta fara kasuwanci, wannan yana buƙatar kulawa.Yace.
Gabaɗaya, Wu Haode ya yi imanin cewa, farashin aluminium zai kasance da kyakkyawan fata a cikin "zurfin zinare tara goma", kuma tsayin sama yana ganin yuan / ton 19,500-20,000.Game da ko farashin aluminium zai sake komawa da ƙarfi ko kuma ya ragu a nan gaba, ya kamata mu mai da hankali ga ingantaccen ingantaccen amfani da ɗakin don tashin hankali.

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Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-02-2022