Aluminum karfe ne mai yawan amfani da makamashi da kuma fitar da iskar carbon.Ƙarƙashin tushen haɗin kai na duniya na yanzu game da raguwar carbon, kuma a ƙarƙashin ƙayyadaddun tsarin gida na "carbon biyu" da kuma "manufofin amfani da makamashi sau biyu", masana'antun aluminum na electrolytic za su fuskanci wani canji mai nisa.Za mu ci gaba da tono zurfi cikin masana'antar aluminium electrolytic, daga manufofin zuwa masana'antu, daga macro zuwa micro, daga wadatawa zuwa buƙatu, don bincika masu canji waɗanda zasu iya kasancewa a cikin kowane haɗin gwiwa, da kuma kimanta tasirin su akan farashin aluminum na gaba.
Babban zafin jiki ya ɓace, ko farashin aluminum yana fuskantar "rage zazzaɓi"
Zafin da aka yi a watan Agusta ya mamaye duniya, kuma yawancin sassan Eurasia sun gamu da matsanancin yanayin zafi, kuma wutar lantarki na cikin gida na fuskantar matsi sosai.Daga cikin su, farashin wutar lantarki ya yi tashin gwauron zabi a sassa da dama na Turai, wanda ya haifar da raguwar samar da wutar lantarki a cikin masana'antar aluminum.A sa'i daya kuma, yankin kudu maso yammacin kasar ma ya fuskanci tsananin zafi, kuma an samu raguwar yawan amfanin gona a yankin Sichuan.A karkashin tsangwama na bangaren samar da kayayyaki, farashin aluminium ya sake dawowa daga kusan yuan/ton 17,000 a tsakiyar watan Yuli zuwa sama da yuan 19,000 a karshen watan Agusta.A halin yanzu, yanayin zafi ya fara raguwa kuma ana sa ran Fed zai kara yawan kudin ruwa.Shin farashin aluminum yana fuskantar "zazzabi"?
Mun yi imanin cewa tunanin macro na ɗan gajeren lokaci yana da ƙarfi, kuma tashin farashin dalar Amurka ya hana kayayyaki, wanda ya matsa lamba akan farashin aluminum.Amma a cikin tsaka-tsakin lokaci, matsalar karancin makamashi a Turai za ta wanzu na dogon lokaci, za a kara fadada sikelin rage yawan samar da aluminum na electrolytic, kuma amfaninsa na kasa da na karshe zai dogara ne akan shigo da kaya.Tare da ƙananan farashin makamashi a kasar Sin, fitarwa na aluminum yana da amfani mai sauƙi, wanda ya sa fitar da gida a cikin kashi na uku da na hudu zai iya kula da kyakkyawan yanayin.A cikin lokacin da ake amfani da al'adun gargajiya na cikin gida, amfani da tasha yana nuna juriya a fili, kuma tarin ajiya a cikin tsaka-tsaki da hanyoyin haɗin ƙasa yana iyakance.Bayan babban zafin jiki ya koma baya, ana sa ran ginin na ƙasa zai ci gaba da sauri, yana haifar da lalacewa.Ci gaba da ingantuwar abubuwan asali yana sa Aluminum na Shanghai ya zama mai juriya.Idan tunanin macro ya inganta, zai sami ƙarfin dawowa mai ƙarfi.Bayan “Golden Nine Azurfa Goma” lokacin amfani kololuwar lokacin amfani, raunin buƙatu da fitaccen matsi na wadata, farashin aluminium zai sake fuskantar matsin lamba na gyarawa.
Taimakon farashi a bayyane yake, matsa lamba na baya ya fi rauni fiye da na Yuni
A watan Yuni, Tarayyar Tarayya ta ba da sanarwar haɓaka ƙimar riba da maki 75.Bayan sanarwar, kasuwa ta fara yin ciniki da tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki, yana haifar da raguwa mafi girma a farashin aluminum a ci gaba da zagayowar wannan shekara.Farashin ya fadi daga kusan yuan 21,000/ton a tsakiyar watan Yuni zuwa yuan 17,000 a tsakiyar watan Yuli./t kusa.Tsoron buƙatu na gaba, haɗe tare da damuwa game da raunana tushen gida, ya ba da gudummawa ga raguwar ƙarshe.
Bayan furucin da shugaban babban bankin tarayya ya yi a makon jiya, kasuwar ta sake yin ciniki da hasashen karuwar kudin ruwa mai maki 75, kuma farashin aluminum ya fadi da kusan yuan 1,000 cikin kwanaki uku, inda ya sake fuskantar matsin lamba don yin gyara.Mun yi imanin cewa matsa lamba na wannan gyara zai zama mai rauni sosai fiye da na Yuni: a gefe guda, ribar masana'antar aluminium electrolytic a watan Yuni ta kasance sama da yuan 3,000 / ton, ko ta fuskar buƙatun shinge na aluminium shuka. kanta, ko masana'antar da ke sama a cikin mahallin raunana bukatar.Daga ra'ayi na babban riba mai dorewa, kamfanonin aluminum suna fuskantar hadarin raguwar riba.Mafi girman ribar, mafi girma faɗuwa, kuma ribar masana'antu ta yanzu ta faɗi kusan yuan 400 / ton, don haka akwai ƙarancin sarari don ci gaba da kiran waya.A gefe guda, farashin aluminium electrolytic na yanzu yana goyan bayan hakan.Matsakaicin farashin aluminum na electrolytic a tsakiyar watan Yuni ya kai yuan 18,100 / ton, kuma farashin har yanzu yana kusa da yuan 17,900 a ƙarshen Agusta, tare da ɗan ƙaramin canji.Kuma a cikin lokaci mai tsawo, akwai ƙarancin sararin samaniya don alumina, pre-baked anodes da farashin wutar lantarki don faɗuwa, wanda ke kiyaye farashin samarwa na aluminum electrolytic a babban matsayi na dogon lokaci, yana samar da tallafi ga farashin aluminum na yanzu. .
Farashin makamashi a ketare yana da yawa, kuma raguwar samar da kayayyaki zai kara fadada
Kudin makamashi na ketare ya kasance mai girma, kuma raguwar samar da kayayyaki za ta ci gaba da fadada.Ta hanyar nazarin tsarin samar da wutar lantarki a Turai da Amurka, ana iya ganin cewa makamashin da ake sabuntawa, iskar gas, kwal, makamashin nukiliya da sauran hanyoyin samar da makamashi suna da kaso mai yawa.Ba kamar Amurka ba, Turai ta fi dogaro da shigo da kayayyaki don samar da iskar gas da gawayi.A cikin 2021, yawan iskar gas na Turai zai kai kusan mita biliyan 480, kuma kusan kashi 40% na iskar gas ana shigo da su daga Rasha.A shekara ta 2022, rikici tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine ya haifar da katsewar iskar gas a Rasha, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin iskar gas a Turai, kuma dole ne Turai ta nemi hanyar da za ta maye gurbin makamashin Rasha a duniya, wanda a kaikaice ya tura. Haɓaka farashin iskar gas a duniya.Sakamakon hauhawar farashin makamashi mai girma, tsire-tsire guda biyu na aluminium na Arewacin Amurka sun rage yawan samarwa, tare da sikelin 304,000 na raguwar samarwa.Yiwuwar ƙarin raguwar samarwa ba za a yanke hukunci a mataki na gaba ba.
Bugu da kari, yanayin zafi da fari da aka yi a bana su ma sun haifar da babbar illa ga tsarin makamashin Turai.Ruwan kogunan Turai da yawa ya ragu sosai, wanda ya yi tasiri sosai wajen samar da wutar lantarki.Bugu da kari, rashin ruwa ya kuma shafi yanayin sanyaya wutar lantarkin na makamashin nukiliya, haka nan kuma iska mai dumi tana rage karfin samar da wutar lantarki, lamarin da ya sa kamfanonin makamashin nukiliya da na'urorin sarrafa iska ke da wuya su yi aiki.Hakan ya kara fadada gibin samar da wutar lantarki a kasashen Turai, wanda kai tsaye ya kai ga rufe masana'antu da dama masu amfani da makamashi.Idan aka yi la'akari da raunin tsarin makamashi na Turai na yanzu, mun yi imanin cewa za a kara fadada sikelin rage yawan samar da aluminium na Turai a wannan shekara.
Idan aka waiwayi sauye-sauyen karfin samarwa a Turai, tun bayan rikicin hada-hadar kudi a shekarar 2008, raguwar samar da kayayyaki a Turai ban da Rasha ya zarce tan miliyan 1.5 (ban da raguwar samar da kayayyaki a rikicin makamashi na 2021).Akwai dalilai da yawa don rage yawan samarwa, amma a cikin bincike na ƙarshe shine batun farashi: alal misali, bayan barkewar rikicin kudi a cikin 2008, farashin aluminum electrolytic a Turai ya faɗi ƙasa da layin farashi, wanda ya haifar da wata matsala. raguwar samar da babban sikelin a cikin shuke-shuken aluminium electrolytic na Turai;An gudanar da binciken hana tallafin farashin wutar lantarki a Burtaniya da sauran yankuna, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin wutar lantarki da raguwar samar da masana'antar aluminum.Har ila yau, gwamnatin Burtaniya na shirin fara aiki a shekarar 2013, inda za ta bukaci masu samar da wutar lantarki su biya karin kudin hayaki.Wadannan matakan sun kara farashin wutar lantarki a Turai, wanda ya haifar da mafi yawan electrolyticaluminum masu samar da bayanan martaba wanda ya dakatar da samarwa a farkon matakin kuma bai ci gaba da samarwa ba.
Tun bayan barkewar matsalar makamashi a Turai a bara, farashin wutar lantarki na cikin gida ya kasance mai tsada.Karkashin tasirin rikicin Ukraine da Rasha da matsanancin yanayi, farashin iskar gas da wutar lantarki a Turai ya kai wani matsayi.Idan ana ƙididdige matsakaicin kuɗin wutar lantarki na gida akan Yuro 650 a kowace MWh, kowace kilowatt-awa na wutar lantarki yana daidai da RMB 4.5/kW·h.Yawan kuzarin da ake amfani da shi a kowace tan na samar da aluminium electrolytic a Turai kusan 15,500 kWh.Bisa ga wannan lissafin, farashin samar da tan na aluminum yana kusa da yuan 70,000 a kowace ton.Tsirrai na Aluminum ba tare da farashin wutar lantarki na dogon lokaci ba ba za su iya samun su ba kwata-kwata, kuma barazanar raguwar samar da aluminium na electrolytic na ci gaba da fadadawa.Tun daga 2021, ƙarfin samar da aluminium electrolytic a Turai ya ragu da tan miliyan 1.326.Mun yi kiyasin cewa bayan shiga cikin kaka, matsalar karancin makamashi a Turai ba za a iya magance ta yadda ya kamata ba, kuma akwai haɗarin kara raguwar samar da aluminum na electrolytic.ton ko makamancin haka.Idan aka yi la'akari da ƙarancin ƙarancin wadatar kayayyaki a Turai, zai yi wahala a dawo da shi na dogon lokaci bayan an yanke samarwa.
Halayen makamashi sun shahara, kuma fitar da kaya yana da fa'idar tsada
Kasuwar gabaɗaya ta yi imanin cewa karafan da ba na ƙarfe ba suna da halayen kuɗi masu ƙarfi ban da halayen kayayyaki.Mun yi imani da cewa aluminum ya bambanta da sauran karafa kuma yana da karfi makamashi Properties, wanda sau da yawa ana watsi da kasuwa.Yana ɗaukar 13,500 kW h don samar da ton ɗaya na aluminum electrolytic, wanda ke cinye mafi girman wutar lantarki akan kowace ton a tsakanin duk wasu karafa da ba na ƙarfe ba.Bugu da kari, wutar lantarkinta ya kai kusan kashi 34% -40% na kudin da ake kashewa, don haka ake kiranta “lantarki mai ƙarfi”.1 kWh na wutar lantarki yana buƙatar cinye kusan gram 400 na daidaitaccen gawayi a matsakaici, kuma samar da tan 1 na aluminum electrolytic yana buƙatar cinye matsakaicin tan 5-5.5 na gawayi na thermal.Farashin gawayi a cikin kudin wutar lantarki na cikin gida ya kai kusan kashi 70-75% na kudin samar da wutar lantarki.Kafin ba a sarrafa farashin, farashin kwal na gaba da farashin aluminum na Shanghai ya nuna babban haɗin gwiwa.
A halin yanzu, saboda tsayayyen wadata da ka'idojin manufofi, farashin kwal na cikin gida yana da babban bambanci na farashi tare da farashin wuraren amfani na yau da kullun na ketare.Farashin FOB na 6,000 kcal NAR thermal coal a Newcastle, Ostiraliya $ 438.4 / ton, farashin FOB na kwal mai zafi a Puerto Bolivar, Colombia shine dalar Amurka 360 / ton, kuma farashin kwal na thermal a tashar tashar Qinhuangdao shine US $ 190.54 / ton. , Farashin FOB na kwal mai zafi a tashar jiragen ruwa na Baltic ta Rasha (Baltic) shine dalar Amurka 110 / ton, kuma farashin FOB na 6000 kcal NAR thermal coal a Gabas Mai Nisa (Vostochny) shine dalar Amurka 158.5 / ton.Yankunan masu arha a wajen yankin sun fi na gida girma sosai.Farashin iskar gas a Turai da Amurka ya haura farashin makamashin kwal.Sabili da haka, aluminium electrolytic na cikin gida yana da fa'idar farashin makamashi mai ƙarfi, wanda zai ci gaba da zama sananne a cikin yanayin farashin makamashi na duniya na yanzu.
Saboda babban bambanci a cikin jadawalin kuɗin fito don samfuran aluminum daban-daban a cikin kasar Sin, ƙimar kuɗin da ake amfani da shi na ingots na aluminum ba a bayyane yake ba a cikin tsarin fitarwa, amma yana nunawa a cikin tsari na gaba na aluminum.Dangane da takamaiman bayanai, kasar Sin ta fitar da ton 652,100 na kayayyakin aluminium da na aluminium da ba a yi su ba a watan Yulin 2022, karuwar shekara-shekara na 39.1%;Adadin da aka fitar daga watan Janairu zuwa Yuli ya kai tan miliyan 4.1606, wanda ya karu da kashi 34.9 a duk shekara.Idan babu manyan canje-canje a cikin buƙatun ƙasashen waje, ana sa ran haɓakar fitar da kayayyaki zai kasance mai girma.
Amfani yana da ɗan juriya, zinariya, azurfa tara da goma ana iya sa ran
Daga watan Yuli zuwa Agusta na wannan shekara, cin abinci na gargajiya ba tare da kaka ba ya gamu da matsanancin yanayi.Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu da sauran yankuna sun fuskanci takunkumin wutar lantarki da samar da kayayyaki, wanda ya haifar da rufe masana'antu a wurare da yawa, amma amfani bai yi muni ba daga bayanan.Da farko dai, ta fuskar yawan aiki na kamfanonin sarrafa kayayyaki, ya kai kashi 66.5% a farkon watan Yuli da kashi 65.4% a karshen watan Agusta, raguwar kashi 1.1 cikin dari.Yawan aiki ya fadi da kashi 3.6 cikin dari a daidai wannan lokacin a bara.Daga hangen matakan ƙididdiga, ton 4,000 ne kawai na ingots na aluminium aka adana a cikin duka watan Agusta, kuma tan 52,000 har yanzu ba a adana su a cikin Yuli-Agusta.A cikin watan Agusta, ajiyar da aka tara na sandunan aluminum ya kai tan 2,600, kuma daga Yuli zuwa Agusta, tarin sandunan aluminum ya kai tan 11,300.Don haka, daga watan Yuli zuwa Agusta, an ci gaba da yin watsi da yanayin gaba ɗaya, kuma ton 6,600 ne kawai aka tara a cikin watan Agusta, wanda ke nuna cewa ana amfani da su a halin yanzu yana da ƙarfin juriya.Daga mahangar tasha, ana kiyaye wadatar sabbin motocin makamashi da samar da wutar lantarki da iska da hasken rana, kuma jan hankali kan amfani da aluminium zai kasance cikin shekara.Gabaɗayan yanayin ƙasa na ƙasa bai canza ba.Lallacewar yanayin zafi mai zafi zai taimaka wurin gina ginin don ci gaba da aiki, kuma ƙaddamar da asusun ba da agaji na ƙasa na "lalacewar gini" biliyan 200 zai taimaka wajen haɓaka hanyar haɗin gwiwa.Saboda haka, mun yi imanin cewa "Golden Nine Azurfa Goma" ana iya sa ran kololuwar lokacin amfani.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-09-2022